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Marsoft's April 2025 Dry Bulk and Tanker Market eBriefs

April 17, 2025

The opening months of 2025 have delivered more policy headlines than many full years—and the shipping markets have felt most of them. Against this backdrop we are pleased to share our April Dry Bulk and Tanker eBriefs.

Both reports share a common thread: markets now steered as much by policy as by fundamentals—much of it emanating from Washington. Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs—together with Beijing’s response—have injected a new layer of uncertainty on top of the ongoing Red Sea diversion developments, strengthening US sanctions, prospective port fees on Chinese-built vessels, and a walkout from IMO carbon pricing talks. Dry bulk and tanker cargo volumes caught directly in the escalating US–China tariffs are relatively modest, yet the broader risk of a protracted or widening trade war figures prominently in our Base and Low Case scenarios. For now, our Base Case continues to assume limited trade war escalation outside of US-China; however, the threshold for shifting toward the Low Case “Global Trade War” scenario is lower than it was a month ago.

At the same time, early year import data is pointing to softer Chinese commodity demand: iron ore, coal, and crude oil imports all began 2025 below year-earlier levels. Set against faster fleet growth—dry bulk capacity is now rising ahead of demand and the tanker orderbook has doubled year-on-year—our near‑term rate expectations have been trimmed, even before the full tariff impacts work their way through the markets.

The Dry Bulk and Tanker market eBriefs available on Marsoft Navigator under your subscription, detail these developments and lay out our updated forecasts for the next four quarters. As always, we welcome your questions and would be glad to discuss the analysis further.

Please contact info@marsoft.com with feedback and for discussion.

*** Marsoft’s 25Q1 NAVIGATOR Market Data Upgrades, and the FLAGSHIP 25Q1 market data release issued Feb 24, 2025. The Dry Bulk were issued on Feb 24^th, The LNGC Report issued on March 1. The Tanker Market Report and the VLGC reports released on March 4; Tanker re-released on March 5. The Containership Market Report released on March 17, 2025. Dry and Tanker ebriefs are released April 17. Subscribers are alerted via email as Reports and Systems are issued.

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Marsoft's April 2025 Dry Bulk and Tanker Market eBriefs&nbsp;<a name="_Hlk168918231"></a>
April 17, 2025
The opening months of 2025 have delivered more policy headlines than many full years&mdash;and the shipping markets have felt most of them. Against this backdrop we are pleased to share our April Dry Bulk and Tanker eBriefs.
Both reports share a common thread: markets now steered as much by policy as by fundamentals&mdash;much of it emanating from Washington. Trump&rsquo;s &ldquo;Liberation Day&rdquo; tariffs&mdash;together with Beijing&rsquo;s response&mdash;have injected a new layer of uncertainty on top of the ongoing Red Sea diversion developments, strengthening US sanctions, prospective port fees on Chinese-built vessels, and a walkout from IMO carbon pricing talks. Dry bulk and tanker cargo volumes caught directly in the escalating US&ndash;China tariffs are relatively modest, yet the broader risk of a protracted or widening trade war figures prominently in our Base and Low Case scenarios. For now, our Base Case continues to assume limited trade war escalation outside of US-China; however, the threshold for shifting toward the Low Case &ldquo;Global Trade War&rdquo; scenario is lower than it was a month ago.
At the same time, early year import data is pointing to softer Chinese commodity demand: iron ore, coal, and crude oil imports all began 2025 below year-earlier levels. Set against faster fleet growth&mdash;dry bulk capacity is now rising ahead of demand and the tanker orderbook has doubled year-on-year&mdash;our near‑term rate expectations have been trimmed, even before the full tariff impacts work their way through the markets.
The Dry Bulk and Tanker market eBriefs available on Marsoft Navigator under your subscription, detail these developments and lay out our updated forecasts for the next four quarters. As always, we welcome your questions and would be glad to discuss the analysis further.
Please contact <a href="mailto:info@marsoft.com">info@marsoft.com</a> with feedback and for discussion.
*** Marsoft&rsquo;s 25Q1 NAVIGATOR Market Data Upgrades, and the FLAGSHIP 25Q1 market data release issued Feb 24, 2025. The Dry Bulk were issued on Feb 24th, The LNGC Report issued on March 1. The Tanker Market Report and the VLGC reports released on March 4; Tanker re-released on March 5. The Containership Market Report released on March 17, 2025. Dry and Tanker ebriefs are released April 17. Subscribers are alerted via email as Reports and Systems are issued.
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